TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/election/44elect/44elect.11a

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                                                                                November 13, 1944

THE ELECTION

The Next Four Years



     The cheers could be heard around the world. Franklin
Roosevelt's victory was good news in London, in Moscow, in Paris,
in Chungking. I was good news in many a humbler foreign village
which the President, geography-lover though he is, had never
heard of.

     All the world listened to the returns. In every major
Russian city, loudspeakers blared the news to street crowds;
Germany's D.N.B. news agency issued bulletins all night. So did
U.S. Army stations, broadcasting to troops on the Western front,
to Italy and to Pacific islands. English readers followed the
election closely. Glowed the London Star: Franklin Roosevelt "has
now authority to act . . . in the setting up of the world
security council." Added the London Evening News: "America will
hit harder now that all her belligerency can be used for export."

     Only Woodrow Wilson's name had ever stood so high as a
symbol of world hope. Now Franklin Roosevelt's re-election was a
vote for U.S. participation in the ordering of the world, an
endorsement of the working partnership of Stalin, Churchill,
Roosevelt and Chiang Kai-shek, both in war & peace-and a promise
that this time the U.S. would not withdraw. Political leaders
abroad no longer hid their relief.

     This international "faith in Franklin Roosevelt" was an
immense asset to him-and also to the U.S.

     Commander in Chief. Many Americans would not see Franklin
Roosevelt's victory in such black & white terms. Certainly
millions who voted for Dewey believed that they, too, were voting
for the fullest international cooperation, and Franklin Roosevelt
will need their support.

     Franklin Roosevelt's victory was thus a vote of confidence
in the start he had made on the peace. But it was also, above
all, a vote for the Commander in Chief. The U.S. appeared
satisfied with his management of the war and with what they knew
of the decisions made at the major strategy councils. His
administration had held the inflation line, had helped blueprint
the miracle of war production. On the record, the U.S. had
decided that it was no time for a change.

     The Challenges. What lay ahead, in the next four years? The
challenges were titanic: winning the war, writing the peace,
finding jobs for 11,000,000 veterans, shifting the tools of war
to the tasks of peace, designing a world society, learning to get
along with other nations in closer contact than the U.S. has ever
been before.

     How would Franklin Roosevelt meet these challenges? The U.S.
had no reason to expect any sensational upheaval after Jan. 20,
no exciting "Hundred Days" of drastic change, as in 1933. The
U.S. had voted for continuity. The "new faces" the U.S. could
expect to see were likely to be the Administration's middle-aged
faces of the past grown older.

     In the next four years, almost certainly, time would revise
the Roosevelt Cabinet, in which four members are in their 70s.
But generally the Administration team would probably stay intact.
The triumphs which lay within the grasp of Term IV were those of
maturity, experience, wisdom.

     And still, Franklin Roosevelt, bold ex-ponent of
experimental democracy, might yet surprise the U.S. He might
decide: this is really my last term; no longer must my decisions
be compromised by a need to win re-election. A strong
Congressional coalition would inevitably try to circumscribe the
President's freedom of movement, should he strike out on new
paths. But Franklin Roosevelt, the most popular U.S. political
figure in history, might go over Congress' head to the people.
This, too, was a Term IV possibility.

     The 16 years. No other man in U.S. history had ever been
invited by the U.S. to live for 16 years in its White House. A
majority of the U.S. electorate had, for a second time, been
willing to break an ingrained American tradition. It did so
because it did not want to rock the boat in wartime, and because
it had faith in Franklin Roosevelt. The big minority which had
disagreed with him or had mistrusted him would have to trust the
judgment of the majority.

The Last Seven Days

     The 1944 Presidential campaign, which began as politely as a
harpsichord duet, wound up with all the kettledrum banging of a
Respighi crescendo.

     "Assassination." The last seven days spewed forth a spate of
name-calling rancor. Sidney Hillman said that a Dewey victory
would be a "national catastrophe"; John Bricker charged that
Communists now control the Democratic party. The new York Daily
News thought it "fair to surmise that (Roosevelt) is even now
hoping to have one of his sons succeed him as King of the United
States."

     There were calmer voices too, Minnesota's Congressman walter
H. Judd divided the Commander in Chief's job into three parts: 1)
to pick a general or admiral, not to be one; 2) to unite the home
front-"results there are far from what they should be"; 3) to
wage political warfare against or enemies, at which, said Judd,
Franklin Roosevelt is "inept."

     But it was the Russians, in their lushest cloak-&-dagger
manner, who added a touch of comic melodrama to the last day of
the campaign, Izvestia, official Soviet Government newspaper, ran
an article headlined: THE ELECTION OF ROOSEVELT GUARANTEED. It is
said that the core of Dewey's Republican staff had "pro-Fascist,
pro-German ties"; and that with campaign "failure imminent . . .
Republicans in despair might resort to a big adventure." The
"adventure," it said, might well be a fake last-minute
assassination plot against Dewey, with the Communists, of course,
blamed for it. Thundered Izvestia: "History includes a number of
such insolent, crude provocations on the eve of parliamentary
elections in democratic countries, up to the burning of the
Reichstag in Germany."

     Save Dave. John Bricker swung back to Columbus, Ohio, after
trekking down side roads in 31 states, 16,000 miles from coast to
coast, Harry Truman ended an 8,000-mile, 15-state tour with a
blazing blunder in close-fought Massachusetts. He called his
fellow Democrat Senator, Massachusetts' massive, paunchy David
Ignatius Walsh, an isolationist, adding brightly: "But we have a
chance to reform him." Senator Walsh, a longtime anti-New Dealer,
reputedly of great influence on the Massachusetts Catholic vote,
had devoted exactly two grudging sentences to the support of his
party, without reference to Term IV. Walsh made the most of the
insult. For four days he played "off again, on again" with Bob
Hannegan, debating whether he would consent to appear with
Franklin Roosevelt in Boston's Fenway Park, at the President's
request. (He finally decided not to, but rode 44 miles on the
President's train.)

     "Anxious to Win." Both Presidential candidates had saved a
blow for Boston.

     Tom Dewey packed 20,000 into the Boston Garden. He charged:
"Mr. Roosevelt, to perpetuate himself in office for 16 years, has
put his party on the auction block-for sale to the highest
bidder."

     The highest bidders, he said, were Sidney Hillman's P.A.C.
and Earl Browder's Communists. He distinguished between the
American Communists and "our fighting ally, Russia." Tom Dewey
charged that "Mr. Roosevelt has so weakened and corrupted the
Democratic Party that it is subject to capture, and the forces of
Communism are, in fact, now capturing it."

     Three days later, Franklin Roosevelt, before 47,000 in
outdoor Fenway Park, denounced "religious intolerance."
"Everybody knows that I was reluctant to run for the Presidency
again . . . but since this campaign developed, I tell you frankly
that I have become most anxious to win. Never before in my
lifetime has a campaign been filled with such misrepresentation,
distortion and falsehood."

     In the same town where, four year earlier, he had made his
famed pledge-"I have said this before, but I shall say it again
and again and again: your boys are not going to be sent into any
foreign wars"-Mr. Roosevelt hit back hard at the critics of that
sentence. He said that "we got into this war because we were
attacked. . . . Under the same circumstances, I would choose to
do the same thing-again and again and again."

     In answering Dewey's Boston speech, mr. Roosevelt said:
"when any politician says solemnly that your Government could be
sold out to Communists, that candidate reveals, and I'll be
polite, a shocking lack of trust in America."

     That same night Candidate Dewey ended his campaign with a
fighting speech in Manhattan's Madision Square Garden. Once again
he charged that Henry Morgenthau's plan or a severe peace had
strengthened German resistance. "The blood of our fighting men is
paying for this improvised meddling which is so much a part an
parcel of the whole Roosevelt Administration. . . .(Franklin
Roosevelt's) own confused incompetence has . . . prolonged the
war in Europe." Tom Dewey said that Mr. Roosevelt had "offered no
program, nothing but smears and unspecified complaints, and the
reason is because the New Deal has nothing to offer. . . ."

     In contrast, he pointed to the Republican pledges of the
Dewey-Bricker team, who "are dedicated" to three main
propositions: 1) speeding of victory and prompt return of
American soldiers by putting competence in Washington; 2) U.S.
leadership for an effective world peace organization; 3)
Government policies to provide jobs and opportunities.

     Predictions. Democratic Chairman Hannegan predicted a bigger
electoral victory than 1940. Republican Chairman Brownell saw
G.O.P. majorities outside the Solid South. Privately both sides
thought the election too close for comfort, and fought
accordingly.

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LAST GUESSES

     All public opinion polls had picked Franklin Roosevelt.

     --The FORTUNE Survey, conducted by Elmo Roper, divided the
popular civilian vote: Roosevelt, 53.6%; Dewey, 46.4%. (FORTUNE'S
secret ballot, marked while the interviewer was not looking
varied 1% in Dewey's favor: Roosevelt, 52.5%; Dewey, 47.5%.)

     --The Crossley poll, after hanging squarely on the fence for
days, made no final prediction, but totted up its election-eve
total: Roosevelt, 51.5%; Dewey, 48.5%. In electoral votes, Gallup
gave F.D.R. 18 sure states with 165 votes, Dewey ten sure states
with 85 votes; and left 20 states with 281 votes in the balance.
     --The Gallup poll, after hanging squarely on the fence for
days, made no final prediction, but totted up its election-eve
total: Roosevelt, 15.5%; Dewey, 48.5%. In electoral votes,
Gallup gave F.D.R. 18 sure states with 165 votes, Dewey ten sure
states with 85 votes; and left 20 states with 281 votes in the
balance.